Alternative Claimant Count statistics January 2013 to August 2021


This is the most recent launch of statistics to 12 August 2021 and contains revisions to earlier statistics. Figures are seasonally adjusted until in any other case said. Figures and charges from April 2020 onwards present greater ranges of claimant unemployment given the impression of coronavirus and the UK authorities’s response.

The subsequent statistical bulletin will likely be on 18 January 2022

Feedback and queries in regards to the statistics might be despatched by e-mail to stats.consultation-2018@dwp.gov.uk

1. Main Stories

In the United Kingdom, the variety of folks claiming unemployment associated advantages in August 2021 was 2.04 million.

This is a:

  • 0.4% lower within the final month
  • 12.3% lower within the final quarter
  • 22.5% lower within the final yr
  • 56.7% enhance within the final 5 years

Some claimants of unemployment associated advantages are wholly unemployed and in search of work, others could also be employed however with low earnings that make them eligible for unemployment associated profit help. Of the two.04 million folks claiming unemployment associated advantages in August, 15.1% had proof of earnings or hours labored. In comparability, this employment fee was 13.3% in August 2020 and 15.3% in August 2016.

On-flows to claimant unemployment are returning to pre-COVID ranges: the common month-to-month on-flow through the monetary yr ending 2020 was round 200,000 in contrast to 228,000 in August 2021. Off-flows have fallen over the quarter however stay above the pre-COVID ranges: the common month-to-month off-flow throughout monetary yr ending 2020 was 194,000 in contrast to 244,000 in August 2021. Since the beginning of 2021, on-flows have remained under off-flows leading to a continued fall within the rely.

The claimant unemployment fee (as a proportion of the inhabitants aged 16 to 64) in August 2021 was 4.9%, no change from the earlier month. The fee has decreased by 1.4 share factors from August 2020. In the 5 years from August 2016, the speed has elevated by 1.7 share factors.

Of the two.04 million folks claiming unemployment-related advantages within the United Kingdom in August 2021:

  • 131,000 (6%) had been claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance and 1.72 million (84%) had been within the Searching for Work conditionality group underneath Universal Credit – the remaining 185,000 (9%) had been ‘additionals’

  • 1.16 million (57%) had been male and 874,000 (43%) had been feminine – compared, males represented 58% in August 2020

  • 341,000 (17%) had been younger folks aged 16 to 24 – this compares to 485,000 (18%) in August 2020, and 209,000 (16%) in August 2016

At regional stage:

  • the best claimant unemployment fee in August 2021 was for London at 6.6%
  • the bottom was for the South West at 3.5%
  • all areas noticed claimant unemployment charges fall over the yr

At native authority stage (figures not seasonally adjusted):

  • the claimant unemployment fee ranges from 1.7% within the Orkney Islands to 10.2% in Birmingham
  • all native authorities noticed a lower within the claimant unemployment fee between August 2020 and 2021

2. What you want to know

The Alternative Claimant Count measures the variety of folks claiming unemployment associated advantages. Before 2013 this was merely the variety of folks claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance. However, because the introduction of Universal Credit from April 2013 the rely started to incorporate Universal Credit claimants positioned within the ‘Searching for Work’ conditionality group.

Under Universal Credit, a broader span of claimants are required to search for work than underneath Jobseeker’s Allowance. This is a function of the design of Universal Credit which assigns claimants to conditionality teams that translate to the work-related duties the person should do so as to fulfil entitlement situations. The Searching for Work conditionality group includes people who find themselves not working, or have very low earnings. The claimant is subsequently required to take motion to safe work or higher paid work. Including these claimants has the impact of accelerating the Office for National Statistics (ONS) measure of the Claimant Count regardless of how the financial system performs.

To tackle this, these Alternative Claimant Count statistics measure the variety of folks claiming unemployment associated advantages by modelling what the rely would have been if Universal Credit had been totally rolled out since 2013 (when Universal Credit started) with the broader span of individuals this covers, comprising:

  1. Jobseeker’s Allowance
  2. Universal Credit – Searching for Work conditionality (excluding these on the well being journey pre-Work Capability Assessment)
  3. estimates of these extra claimants who would have been Searching for Work underneath Universal Credit had it existed over all the time interval from 2013

The Alternative Claimant Count collection begins from January 2013. Over an extended interval, the Labour Force Survey offers a constant measure of unemployment at nationwide and regional stage. Trends over time for native areas might be thought of utilizing the Claimant Count prior to 2013, and the Alternative Claimant Count from 2013. However the figures can’t be straight in contrast as they’re outlined otherwise.

Claimant unemployment has continued to fall over current months

Comparisons between Alternative Claimant Count, ONS Claimant Count and Labour Force Survey, United Kingdom, August 2006 to August 2021, seasonally adjusted.

Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count statistics and ONS Claimant Count statistics and Labour Force Survey.

To perceive the impression of the variations between the 2 measures, Newcastle-upon-Tyne (which was one of many first native authorities to roll out Universal Credit Full Service to new claimants in May 2016) exhibits a pointy rise in claimant unemployment as extra folks had been introduced into Searching for Work conditionality. But this was regardless of adjustments within the native labour market and gave deceptive rises in native unemployment estimates, which the Alternative Claimant Count controls for and exhibits a a lot flatter pattern.

DWP Alternative Claimant Count controls for the rollout of Universal Credit

Newcastle-upon-Tyne native authority – Claimant Count and Alternative Claimant Count comparisons, August 2013 to August 2021, not seasonally adjusted

Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count statistics and ONS Claimant Count statistics.

It is feasible that the Claimant Count can surpass the Alternative Claimant Count in native areas, most normally areas the place Universal Credit had been rolled out early. The Alternative Claimant Count contains estimates of these extra claimants who would have been Searching for Work underneath Universal Credit had it existed over all the time interval from 2013, however removes claimants on the well being journey pre-Work Capability Assessment. Initially, it will trigger the Alternative Claimant Count to present bigger figures than the Claimant Count, as there will likely be extra extra claimants included than well being journey instances eliminated. However, as Universal Credit rolls out over time and the extra claimants start to transition to Universal Credit, this weighting begins to shift.

Compared to the ONS Claimant Count, the choice collection offers a extra constant measure of developments in nationwide and native ranges of claimant unemployment over time regardless of the rollout of Universal Credit. The ONS Claimant Count continues to present an correct rely, at a cut-off date, of the variety of folks claiming unemployment associated advantages.

Enhancements to Universal Credit as a part of the UK authorities’s response to the coronavirus imply that an rising variety of folks turned eligible for unemployment-related profit help, though nonetheless employed. Consequently, adjustments within the Claimant Count is probably not due wholly to adjustments within the variety of people who find themselves unemployed.

National and regional figures are seasonally adjusted. The objective of that is to take away systematic calendar-related variation related to the time of the yr which might in any other case trigger misinterpretation of developments throughout the information. This facilitates comparisons between consecutive time intervals, fairly than simply year-on-year. Our method to seasonal adjustment is in line with the method utilized by ONS for the Claimant Count. About these statistics comprises extra details about the method used.

Figures on this bulletin are rounded in accordance with the DWP rounding coverage for statistics. Perturbed figures from the underlying information out there on Stat-Xplore or in accompanying tables could not sum precisely to the rounded totals accordingly.

3. United Kingdom

In the United Kingdom, the variety of folks claiming unemployment associated advantages in August 2021 was 2.04 million. This is a lower of twenty-two.5% from August 2020.

Following a big enhance from March 2020, primarily linked to the coronavirus pandemic and the UK authorities’s response, general numbers of claimants on unemployment associated advantages have fallen over the past 6 months.

At August 2021, over 4 in 5 claimants of unemployment advantages had been coated by the Universal Credit Searching for Work conditionality group (84%). In comparability, at August 2020 81% had been on this group. As managed migration to Universal Credit continues, this fee will proceed to rise while the charges for the opposite teams will proceed to fall.

Number of individuals claiming unemployment associated advantages by sort of claimant, United Kingdom, August 2013 to August 2021, seasonally adjusted.

Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count statistics.

The general fee of individuals claiming unemployment associated advantages as a proportion of the resident inhabitants aged 16 to 64 in August 2021 was 4.9%, a fall of 1.4 share factors in contrast to August 2020 (6.3%) and an increase of 1.7 share factors in contrast to August 2016 (3.2%).

Monthly claimant unemployment fee by gender, United Kingdom, August 2013 to August 2021, seasonally adjusted.

Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count statistics and ONS Claimant Count inhabitants statistics.

Gender

Although general charges are falling, male claimants make up a better proportion of unemployment associated advantages. The gender cut up of claimants started to equalise over time however has proven a pointy rise within the proportion of male claimants because the begin of the coronavirus pandemic. In August 2013, 57% of claimants had been male. Over time, that proportion started to regularly lower to round 52% in August 2018 however elevated to 57% in August 2021.

Monthly variety of folks claiming unemployment associated advantages by gender, United Kingdom, August 2013 to August 2021, seasonally adjusted.

Month Female Male Total
August 2013 905,000 1,191,000 2,096,000
August 2014 743,000 903,000 1,646,000
August 2015 638,000 747,000 1,385,000
August 2016 605,000 694,000 1,299,000
August 2017 599,000 658,000 1,257,000
August 2018 593,000 637,000 1,230,000
August 2019 586,000 653,000 1,239,000
August 2020 1,107,000 1,518,000 2,625,000
August 2021 874,000 1,162,000 2,035,000

Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count statistics.

Age

All age teams have seen a rise in claimant unemployment because the begin of the coronavirus pandemic with youth claimant unemployment (these aged 16 to 24) seeing the biggest enhance. Young folks make up 17% of complete claimant unemployment.

Additionals

The extra group of unemployed claimants are estimates of those that would have been Searching for Work underneath Universal Credit had it existed over all the time interval from 2013. This covers:

  • people who find themselves not in work however beforehand claimed Housing Benefit solely, this implies didn’t declare Jobseeker’s Allowance
  • folks whose family beforehand claimed Child Tax Credit from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC), however should not themselves incomes greater than the Universal Credit administrative earnings threshold; and nor have they got duty as the primary carer for his or her youngster
  • people who find themselves the associate of a claimant of Employment and Support Allowance or Income Support, however who don’t themselves have caring obligations, a incapacity or a limitation on their capacity to work

Of the two.04 million folks claiming unemployment advantages in August 2021, 185,000 (9%) had been ‘additionals’. This is a lower of 43,000 (19%) on the earlier yr.

The majority of extra claimants are coated by two primary teams. The largest group of additionals are these folks not in work however claiming Housing Benefit solely, adopted by these claiming Child Tax Credits.

4. Regional

Of the two.04 million folks claiming unemployment advantages in August 2021, a fifth (401,000) had been dwelling in London. The subsequent highest area was the North West with 249,000, adopted by the South East with 218,000.

All areas noticed decreases in claimant unemployment. Largest share decreases had been within the South West (32%) and Wales (29%).

The highest claimant unemployment fee within the United Kingdom in August 2021 was for London (6.6%). The subsequent highest was for the West Midlands (5.9%). The area with the bottom claimant unemployment fee was the South West (3.5%). For info on all areas, ODS tables are supplied alongside this launch.

All areas have seen a fall in claimant unemployment charges in contrast to the identical time final yr.

Claimant unemployment fee by area, United Kingdom, August 2020 and August 2021, seasonally adjusted.

Region Claimant unemployment fee 2020 (%) Claimant unemployment fee 2021 (%)
North East 7.2 5.4
North West 6.9 5.4
Yorkshire and The Humber 6.5 5.1
East Midlands 5.5 4.1
West Midlands 7.2 5.9
East of England 5.5 4.1
London 7.7 6.6
South East 5.2 3.9
South West 5.1 3.5
Wales 6.1 4.3
Scotland 6.0 4.3
Northern Ireland 5.3 4.1

Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count statistics and ONS Claimant Count inhabitants statistics.

5. Local space

In August 2021, the best claimant unemployment fee throughout all native authorities was Birmingham (10.2%). The subsequent highest was Newham (9.9%) adopted by Haringey (9.9%).

The native authorities with the bottom claimant unemployment charges had been the Isle of Scilly (1.7%), Orkney Islands (1.8%) and Richmondshire (2.1%).

Rates are calculated by dividing the variety of folks claiming unemployment associated advantages in an area authority by the inhabitants aged 16 to 64 in that native authority. They are calculated utilizing the mid-2020 inhabitants estimates.

All native areas noticed decreases in claimant unemployment when put next to August 2020

Claimant unemployment fee by native authority, United Kingdom, August 2020 and August 2021 (primarily based on August 2020 quintiles), not seasonally adjusted.

Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count statistics and ONS Claimant Count inhabitants statistics.

When classifying claimant unemployment, information is cut up into quintiles (5 bands every containing roughly 76 native authorities), the highest quintile is the group of native authorities with the best ranges of claimant unemployment.

The largest lower was in Blackpool (down 3.4% share factors), adopted by Isles of Scilly (down 3.3 share factors) and Torbay (down 3.0 share factors).

6. Flows

Stat-Xplore contains newly revealed standardised statistics on On-flows and Off-flows.

On-flows: the variety of folks claiming unemployment associated advantages in a single month, who weren’t claiming within the earlier month.

Off-flows: the variety of folks now not claiming unemployment associated advantages in a single month, who had been claiming within the earlier month.

These statistics can be found by month (February 2013 to August 2021), by native space, profit sort, age and gender. They provide some insights to customers on month-to-month adjustments in an area space – for instance the proportion of the Count which represents new claims within the earlier month, and the off-flow fee – a measure of how the native labour market is performing.

Net flows in claimant unemployment have decreased over the past quarter

Flows between claimant unemployment, United Kingdom, August 2013 to August 2021, standardised and seasonally adjusted.

Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count on-flow and off-flow statistics.

Net flows had been in regular state till a considerable rise in on-flows in April 2020. On-flows are returning to pre-COVID ranges, nonetheless off-flows stay greater than pre-COVID ranges. Over the final 6 months, on-flows have remained under off-flows leading to a web lower, though over the past quarter, the hole between on-flows and off-flows has fallen.

The statistics launched in Stat-Xplore permits customers to produce native space analyses of flows over time.

7. About these statistics

The statistics are experimental Official Statistics, badged as provisional (for the most recent 3 months) and are topic to revision in future releases.

Estimates of claimants in work: Those claiming unemployment-related advantages could also be wholly unemployed and in search of work, or could also be employed however with low revenue or hours, that make them eligible for unemployment-related profit help.

Enhancements to Universal Credit (UC) as a part of the UK authorities’s response to the coronavirus imply that some extra folks turned eligible for unemployment-related profit help, though nonetheless employed. The discount in particular person employee’s pay, because of the federal government schemes to defend companies (Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme and Self Employed Income Support Scheme), could have additionally elevated the variety of employed folks eligible for UC by way of their earnings falling under revenue thresholds. Some of those claims will fall throughout the work search conditionality group inside UC.

Figures are estimates; utilizing proof of claimants’ earnings or hours labored of their newest evaluation interval to estimate the proportion who’re jobless and people who are (or have not too long ago been) working (excluding these self-employed). Figures embody these with reported Pay as you Earn (PAYE) revenue of their most up-to-date UC Assessment Period, these reporting part-time hours labored on Jobseeker’s Allowance, and hours labored or revenue from earnings from these on Child Tax Credits or Housing Benefit.

Like many financial indicators, the labour market is affected by components that have a tendency to happen at across the identical time yearly; for instance, faculty leavers coming into the labour market in July and whether or not Easter falls in March or April. In order to examine adjustments over time that aren’t pushed by seasonal components, the information has been seasonally adjusted. This permits for comparisons between consecutive time intervals, for instance, to the earlier quarter or month. All figures said on this statistical launch are seasonally adjusted besides the place in any other case said. Figures at native authority stage and under should not seasonally adjusted as a significant multiplicative mannequin which comprises different metrics can’t be produced at such a low stage of knowledge.

The background and methodology doc offers a fuller clarification on the aim, protection, development, sources and limitations of the statistics. For instance, this contains a proof of why the again collection begins in 2013 (linked to information availability) and on how the claimant unemployment charges have been calculated.

Lead Statistician: Steve Watkins

ISBN: 978-1-78659-323-8



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